Gaffney first reviewed her 2016 ADI predictions, which were 80% correct (right). “Trends are changing so fast that Ray and I were working on this presentation until 10 p.m. last night to make sure it was current,” she said. “There will be new trends surfacing in the next month that change things.”
Wang reviewed Constellation’s Business Trends AstroChart to explain how he thinks about trends. “As you look at trends, you need to understand the potential impact for your business as well as how your organization will adopt these new trends,” he said. “The trends that have the biggest disruptive and logarithmic impact on your business ... can generate the greatest results.”
Gaffney and Wang told attendees that their latest forecast goes even further into the future. Among Gaffney’s points:
• “Adobe is now incorporating a Digital Price Index in our economic trends analysis using data from the Adobe Marketing Cloud, Feds, Census Bureau, and other sources to track the economy. February 2017 U.S. data shows that we are seeing our third straight month of inflation in the DPI. In the U.K., we’ve seen five straight months of inflation in the DPI. The implications are that consumers will have reduced spending capacity as a result of higher prices. We are seeing economic destruction and price volatility.”
• “Blockchain will be extremely disruptive. Look at the industries predicted to be impacted the most. It will be a key boardroom topic. It will cut out middlemen, creating doomsday scenarios for many large businesses while creating major costs savings for others. You should educate yourself on what Blockchain is and figure out how it will impact your business.”
• “In an AI-enabled IoT world, routine tasks will become programmatized as we rapidly flee our chores. The implication is that, more so than ever, becoming the default brand choice in a preprogrammed world will make or break businesses. An AI-driven world requires businesses to rethink their models.”
Wang talked about what to focus on as you build your digital business models:
• “Digital leaders capture 69.8% of the market share and 77.1% of the profit in their space. Growth will come from stealing rather than attracting.”
• “We are living in an attention economy [in which] contextual relevancy earns you the permission to engage.”
Looking out to 2020, Gaffney and Wang cited IoT, 3D printing, AR/VR, robotics, and blockchain among the biggest trends.
“Disrupt yourself,” Gaffney concluded. “If you don’t, someone else will.”
Click here to download the full presentation (PDF).
At the end of their presentation, an audience poll was taken to see what trends people thought would impact their businesses most. Here are the results: